Jobs Market and Economy in Warsaw and Poland and the EU – 2024

Poland and the EU are experiencing a recovery from the recent economic slowdown. In 2023, Poland’s GDP increased by 0.3%, closely aligning with the average of the twenty-seven EU countries, as estimated by the European Commission at 0.6%. A rebound is anticipated for the next year, with Poland’s economic growth in 2024 projected to be around 2.3%, while the EU Commission offers an optimistic forecast of 1.3%. Simultaneously, inflation is gradually slowing down, with the average value in Poland for 2023 reaching 11.6%. The inflation rate is expected to decrease to 5.1% in the following year, while maintaining a double-digit salary growth rate of 10.3% in 2024. These insights are derived from the report ‘PEI Economic Review: Winter 2023,’ published by the Polish Economic Institute.

The EU managed to avoid a recession in 2023, but its GDP growth is expected to be slower than previously forecast, slowing down from 3.4% to 0.6%. The following year is anticipated to bring improvement, with the European Commission forecasting a 1.3% GDP growth for the EU in 2024. Sweden is the only economy predicted to enter a recession, with a 0.2% drop in GDP due to local property market issues. However, market consensus suggests a more conservative growth of no more than 0.9% YoY.

Similar to the EU, Poland is also witnessing a return to economic growth. The year 2023 is expected to conclude with a GDP growth of 0.3%, and an acceleration is projected for 2024, with economic growth reaching close to 2.3%. It’s worth noting that compared to Poland’s historical economic performance, these achievements are considered modest.

“The main driver of growth will be household consumption, with minor disruptions to investment expected in the coming year. Investments are set to return to rapid growth in 2025, supported by better global economic conditions and National Recovery Plan programs. With these factors, GDP is anticipated to accelerate to 3.5% in 2025,” highlights Jakub Rybacki, Head of PEI’s macroeconomics team.

Although inflation is decreasing, the decline is anticipated to be slower. Following a significant slowdown in price growth from 18.6% in February to 6.5% in November, inflation is projected to average 5.1% in 2024, reflecting a more gradual reduction. Challenges include the persistence of core inflation and increases in energy prices in H2, leading to a slight rise in food prices, while fuel prices continue to fall.

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